Space Race 2025: SpaceX, China Dominate & Vandenberg's Future

The global space launch landscape underwent a dramatic shift in 2025, witnessing a surge in activity fueled primarily by SpaceX and China. With a record-breaking number of orbital launch attempts, the “Space Race 2025” is well underway, reshaping the industry and highlighting the growing importance of space access. This article delves into the key trends, emerging players, and future prospects, particularly focusing on the evolving role of Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. We’ll examine the successes and setbacks of 2025, and project what 2026 holds for the burgeoning space sector, including the anticipated advancements in Starship, Vulcan, and New Glenn rockets.

Record-Breaking Launch Activity in 2025

According to Aviation Week & Space Technology and Jonathan’s Space Report, 2025 saw a 25% increase in orbital launch attempts worldwide compared to the previous record set in 2024. A staggering 329 orbital launch attempts were recorded, including near-orbital flight tests of SpaceX’s Starship-Super Heavy system. Of these, an impressive 321 reached orbit or marginal orbits, demonstrating a significant improvement in launch reliability.

SpaceX Leads the Charge

SpaceX unequivocally dominated the launch market in 2025. The company launched a remarkable 165 Falcon 9 rockets, surpassing its 2024 record of 134 Falcon 9 and two Falcon Heavy flights. Notably, no Falcon Heavy rockets flew in 2025, indicating a strategic focus on the more frequent Falcon 9 launches. This demonstrates SpaceX’s ability to consistently deliver reliable and cost-effective access to space.

China's Rising Influence

China secured its position as the second-largest launch provider, attempting 92 orbital launches in 2025. This substantial activity underscores China’s ambitious space program and its growing capabilities in space technology. The increasing number of Chinese launches signals a clear intent to become a major player in both commercial and government space sectors.

US Dominance Continues

The United States maintained its leadership in space launch, with US providers, including Rocket Lab Electron launches from New Zealand, contributing an additional 30 orbital launches. This solidifies the US as the world leader in space launch, benefiting from both established players like SpaceX and emerging companies like Rocket Lab.

International Launch Landscape

Beyond the US and China, several other nations contributed to the global launch tally. Russia completed 17 launches, while Europe achieved 8. India, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Iran, and Australia also participated, with launch numbers ranging from five to one. However, the global launch tally is expected to plateau in 2026 as SpaceX focuses on ramping up Starship flights.

Setbacks and Challenges: Launch Failures in 2025

Despite the overall increase in launch success, 2025 also witnessed some notable failures. These setbacks highlight the inherent risks of spaceflight and the ongoing challenges in developing reliable launch systems.

Innospace's Hanbit-Nano Failure

A South Korean startup, Innospace, experienced a launch failure with its Hanbit-Nano rocket at Brazil’s Alcantara Space Center. The rocket crashed shortly after liftoff, dealing a blow to Brazilian aerospace ambitions. This was the first flight of the nano-launcher, designed to place up to 200 pounds (90 kilograms) of payload into Sun-synchronous orbit. The failure underscores the difficulty of achieving successful first flights for new launch vehicles.

Japan's H3 Rocket Struggles

Japan’s H3 rocket faced further challenges, with a December launch potentially compromised by a faulty payload fairing. Officials suspect an abnormal separation of the fairing caused a critical drop in pressure in the second-stage engine, leading to engine failure. This incident adds to the delays in Japan’s space program and raises questions about the reliability of the H3 rocket.

Progress and Innovation: Key Developments in 2025

Alongside the launch statistics, 2025 saw significant progress in several key areas of space technology.

Isar Aerospace's Rapid Iteration

German startup Isar Aerospace demonstrated a commitment to rapid iteration by completing integrated static test firings for both stages of its Spectrum rocket less than nine months after a previous launch failure. This quick turnaround highlights the company’s agility and determination to succeed in the competitive launch market.

Canada's Launch Ambitions

The Atlantic Spaceport Complex in Newfoundland, Canada, received important regulatory approval, clearing the path for the development of Canada’s first purpose-built orbital launch complex. This development signifies Canada’s growing ambition to establish a sovereign orbital launch capability.

AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird Satellite

An Indian LVM3 rocket launched AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 6 satellite, the heaviest spacecraft ever launched on an Indian rocket, weighing in at 13,450 pounds (6.1 metric tons). This launch marks a significant step in the rollout of AST SpaceMobile’s direct-to-device satellite network, competing with SpaceX’s Starlink.

Industry Power Rankings: A Shifting Landscape

GearTech’s annual power rankings of US rocket companies revealed a notable shift in the industry. SpaceX continues to hold the top spot, while Blue Origin made the biggest leap, moving from No. 4 to No. 2 after a successful year, including the first orbital launch of its New Glenn rocket and a subsequent successful landing of the first stage. Rocket Lab maintained a strong position at No. 3, while United Launch Alliance (ULA) slipped to No. 4 after a limited number of Vulcan rocket launches.

Leadership Changes and Acquisitions

The industry also witnessed key leadership changes and acquisitions. Tory Bruno, the former CEO of ULA, joined Blue Origin to lead its national security-focused unit. Additionally, Rocketdyne, a historic engine manufacturer, underwent its fourth ownership change in 20 years, being acquired by AE Industrial Partners.

Vandenberg Space Force Base: A Critical Role in the Future

Vandenberg Space Force Base in California is poised to play an increasingly important role in the future of space launch. The Department of the Air Force has announced a request for information from launch providers to develop a new orbital launch site, Space Launch Complex-14 (SLC-14), capable of handling heavy or super-heavy vertical launch class rockets. This development positions Vandenberg as a key location for launching next-generation launch vehicles like SpaceX’s Starship and Blue Origin’s New Glenn 9×4.

Looking Ahead to 2026: Key Questions and Expectations

As we look ahead to 2026, several key questions remain. Will SpaceX’s Starship begin launching Starlink satellites? Will United Launch Alliance finally achieve a higher cadence with its Vulcan rocket? Will Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket be fully certified by the US Space Force? These are just a few of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the rapidly evolving space industry. The “Space Race 2025” has set the stage for an even more dynamic and competitive 2026, with SpaceX and China continuing to lead the way, and Vandenberg Space Force Base emerging as a critical hub for future space exploration.

Next Three Launches

• Jan. 9: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-96 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 18:05 UTC
• Jan. 11: Falcon 9 | Twilight Mission | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 13:19 UTC
• Jan. 11: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-97 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 18:08 UTC