Satellite Crash & SpaceX xAI Merger: What You Need to Know

The space industry is experiencing a period of rapid change, marked by both setbacks and ambitious advancements. From the unfortunate loss of a satellite during a Japanese rocket launch to the potential merger of SpaceX and xAI, the landscape is shifting. This article dives deep into these key events, exploring the implications for the future of space exploration, artificial intelligence, and the commercial space sector. We’ll analyze the reasons behind the UK’s shift in space launch strategy, the emergence of new Canadian space companies, and the growing regulatory challenges faced by the FAA. Stay informed with the latest updates and insights in this comprehensive overview.

UK Space Launch Strategy Reversal: Why Orbex Was Abandoned

Recent news revealed a significant shift in the UK’s space launch plans. British launch company Orbex, once poised to become a key player in the nation’s space ambitions, is now preparing to sell its business to The Exploration Company, with the cooperation of the UK government. This represents a reversal from earlier expectations that Orbex would spearhead British rocket launches for British satellites. So, what led to this change of heart?

According to European Spaceflight, the decision likely stems from a realistic assessment of Orbex’s hardware development and financial status. Officials likely concluded that achieving orbit, even with substantial investment, was improbable. The acquisition by The Exploration Company, a spaceship builder, further suggests a strategic move to secure funding through the UK’s share of the European Launch Challenge, rather than a genuine belief in Orbex’s launch capabilities. This highlights the inherent risks and complexities of early-stage space ventures.

Canada Rocket Company Emerges: A Push for Sovereign Launch Capabilities

In a move to bolster its space independence, a Toronto-based startup, Canada Rocket Company, recently emerged from stealth mode, securing $6.2 million CDN ($4.5 million) in seed funding. The company aims to establish sovereign light- and medium-lift launch capabilities for Canada, responding to the nation’s increasing investment in the space domain.

The Launch the North Challenge

Canada’s concern over reliance on the United States for space access prompted the launch of the “Launch the North” challenge last November. This initiative commits $105 million CDN ($75.7 million) in public funds to support companies striving for orbital launch by 2028. Canada Rocket Company is strategically building a scalable architecture around a proven methalox engine, utilizing mature subsystems from Canadian and European ecosystems to meet this aggressive deadline. This demonstrates a focused approach to achieving a critical national space capability.

Vega C Secures Brazilian Launch Contract: A $35.6 Million Deal

A Brazilian government agency has contracted a Vega C rocket to launch the Amazonia-1B Earth observation satellite in 2027. Interestingly, the contract was awarded not to Avio, the company responsible for Vega C launch services, but to SpaceLaunch, a Texas-based launch broker. This highlights the growing role of launch brokers in the commercial space market.

The contract value, disclosed in a Brazilian procurement document, is 188.2 million Brazilian real ($35.6 million). This provides a rare public data point for the cost of a Vega launch, offering valuable insights into the economics of small-to-medium lift launch services. Marcy Mabry, CEO of SpaceLaunch, leveraged her previous experience arranging the Amazonia-1 launch on an Indian PSLV rocket to secure this deal.

Russia’s Plasma Engine Development: A Potential Leap in Mars Travel

India Defence Review reports that Russia is actively testing a new plasma propulsion system with the potential to significantly reduce travel time to Mars. The engine, developed by Rosatom’s Troitsk Institute, could shorten the journey from months to just one or two. This technology utilizes electromagnetic fields to accelerate hydrogen particles, offering a potentially revolutionary approach to deep-space travel.

The prototype engine is reportedly operating at 300 kilowatts and has demonstrated a service life of 2,400 hours, surpassing the experimental VASIMR engine developed in the US. However, caution is advised, as lab performance doesn’t always translate to the harsh realities of the space environment. Furthermore, information from Russia should be viewed with a degree of skepticism, as achievements are often subject to exaggeration.

SpaceX and xAI Merger: A Powerhouse in the Making?

Perhaps the most significant development in recent space and tech news is the potential merger between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and his AI company, xAI. Reuters reports that the merger is being discussed ahead of a planned public offering for SpaceX later this year. This move would accelerate SpaceX’s efforts to launch data centers into orbit, positioning the company in the escalating AI race against tech giants like Google, Meta, and OpenAI.

Valuation and Strategic Implications

SpaceX is currently the world’s most valuable privately held company, valued at $800 billion. xAI was valued at $230 billion in November. Musk anticipates SpaceX’s public valuation to exceed $1 trillion. He believes that space will become the lowest-cost location for AI deployment within two to three years, making this merger a strategically sound move. The exchange of xAI shares for SpaceX shares is the proposed structure of the transaction, facilitated through newly established entities in Nevada.

Japanese H3 Rocket Failure: A 5-Ton Satellite Lost

Japan’s H3 rocket, on its eighth flight, suffered a critical failure during its December 22nd launch. The rocket was intended to place the 5-ton Michibiki 5 navigation satellite into orbit. However, after jettisoning its payload fairing, the satellite began to wobble and lean, with sensors detecting sudden accelerations. A subsequent investigation by JAXA revealed that the satellite effectively fell off the rocket – a novel failure mechanism.

This incident underscores the challenges of rocket development and the importance of rigorous testing and quality control. The loss of the Michibiki 5 satellite represents a setback for Japan’s space program and highlights the risks inherent in space launch operations.

FAA Anticipates Continued Growth in Launches

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), responsible for regulating commercial spaceflight, expects continued growth in launch activity. Minh Nguyen, deputy associate administrator for commercial space transportation at the FAA, announced that the office licensed 205 operations in 2025, a 25 percent increase from 2024. This growth is projected to continue, with the number of licensed operations potentially doubling by 2029.

This rapid expansion is placing significant pressure on the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) to maintain pace and ensure safety. The increasing frequency of launches necessitates streamlined regulatory processes and enhanced oversight to accommodate the burgeoning commercial space sector.

ESA Investigates Falcon 9 Breakup Over Poland

The European Space Agency (ESA) has issued a call for tender to study the reentry and breakup of a SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage over Poland in February 2025. Fragments of the stage survived reentry and landed across the country, with at least one piece landing in a populated area. Fortunately, no injuries or property damage occurred.

ESA aims to use the data collected during this event to improve predictions of the risks associated with the reentry of elongated upper stages. With the quadrupling of orbital rocket launches in the past decade (from approximately 80 in 2015 to 317 in 2025), understanding and mitigating these risks is becoming increasingly critical.

SpaceX Targets Mid-March for Next Starship Launch

SpaceX founder Elon Musk announced on January 25th that the next Starship test flight is targeted for mid-March. This will be the 12th overall flight for Starship and the first utilizing the significantly upgraded “Version 3” (V3) iteration of the vehicle.

Starship V3: Increased Power and Reliability

Starship V3 is slightly taller than V2 but boasts considerably more power, capable of lifting over 100 tons to low-Earth orbit compared to V2’s 35 tons. This increased capability is attributed to the Raptor 3 engine, a new variant that will debut on this test mission. SpaceX hopes Raptor 3 will prove more reliable than its predecessor, addressing a key challenge in Starship’s development.

Seeking Information About Challenger Artifacts

Robert Pearlman of CollectSpace acquired a batch of space shuttle-era “Remove Before Flight” tags on eBay in 2010. He later discovered that these tags were removed from the external tank of STS 51-L, the Challenger space shuttle flight in 1986. He is now seeking more information about the tags’ provenance to facilitate their donation to museums with a complete historical record.

This story highlights the unexpected ways in which artifacts from significant historical events can resurface and the importance of preserving these items for future generations.

Next Three Launches

• January 30: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-101 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 05:51 UTC
• February 2: Falcon 9 | Starlink 17-32 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 15:17 UTC
• February 3: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-103 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 22:12 UTC