RAM Shortage: Why the "AI PC" Hype Is Fading Fast
The dream of a seamless, AI-powered computing experience is hitting a roadblock. A global shortage of RAM, driven by the insatiable demand from data centers fueling the AI boom, is sending memory prices soaring. This isn't just bad news for consumers looking to build or upgrade their PCs; it's also significantly dampening the enthusiasm surrounding the much-hyped "AI PC" market. The initial fervor, pushed by manufacturers eager to capitalize on the generative AI wave, is quickly giving way to a more pragmatic assessment of what consumers actually want and need.
The Root of the Problem: RAM and Flash Memory Constraints
As GearTech reported, the surge in AI development and deployment requires massive amounts of RAM and flash memory chips. Data centers are the primary drivers of this demand, leaving PC manufacturers scrambling for limited supplies. This scarcity is directly translating into higher costs for consumers.
Ben Yeh, principal analyst at technology research firm Omdia, recently announced that mainstream PC memory and storage costs rose by 40 percent to 70 percent in 2025, with those increases being passed on to customers. While global PC shipments did see an increase – 9.2 percent according to Omdia and 9.6 percent according to IDC – analysts predict a more volatile market in 2026.
Navigating the Shortage: Price Hikes and Downgrades
Both Omdia and IDC anticipate that PC manufacturers will respond to the RAM shortage in two primary ways: raising prices and releasing computers with lower memory specifications. IDC expects price hikes of 15 to 20 percent, coupled with a reduction in average RAM specs to conserve existing inventory. Omdia’s Yeh predicts “leaner mid to low-tier configurations to protect margins.”
Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for worldwide mobile device trackers at IDC, emphasizes the longevity of the issue: “These RAM shortages will last beyond just 2026, and the cost-conscious part of the market is the one that will be most impacted.” IDC expects vendors to prioritize midrange and premium systems to offset higher component costs, particularly memory.
The Impact on "AI PCs": A Hype Cycle Bursting?
The escalating costs of RAM have significant implications for the "AI PC" concept, a term OEMs have heavily promoted over the past two years in an attempt to leverage the excitement surrounding generative AI chatbots and boost computer sales. However, consumers have proven to be either unwilling or discerning enough to fully embrace the AI PC hype.
Ubrani notes, “PC OEMs had trouble selling the on-device AI message even before the memory shortages.” This reluctance is further compounded by the fact that many IT buyers view local AI capabilities as a lower priority, especially if OEMs are forced to reduce RAM specs to manage the component shortage.
Cloud vs. On-Device AI: A Shifting Landscape
The debate between cloud-based and on-device AI is also playing a role. Ubrani explains, “General interest in AI PCs has been wavering for a while, since cloud-based options are widely available and the use cases for on-device AI have been limited. This indifference (between on-device and cloud-based) from a demand perspective might work in favor of PC OEMs, as they don’t need to provide large amounts of RAM.”
With RAM pricing stability not expected until 2027, according to Ubrani, it may be some time before RAM is readily available enough for PC companies to prioritize AI PCs, which typically require at least 16GB of memory, to the extent they have in recent years.
Dell's Pivot: From AI Focus to Core Strengths
We’ve already seen a tangible shift in strategy from Dell. In 2025, the company discontinued its XPS brand of consumer laptops and desktops, citing the rapidly evolving AI PC market as a contributing factor. Kevin Terwilliger, VP and GM of commercial, consumer, and gaming PCs at Dell, stated at the time that consumers and professionals were looking at on-device AI to drive productivity and creativity.
However, at CES 2026, Dell resurrected the XPS brand, but with a revised marketing approach focused on build quality, battery life, and display quality. Terwilliger’s tune had changed significantly: “… what we’ve learned over the course of this year, especially from a consumer perspective, is they’re not buying based on AI. In fact, I think AI probably confuses them more than it helps them understand a specific outcome.”
Microsoft's Internal Concerns: Copilot's Challenges
The challenges aren't limited to PC manufacturers. Microsoft also appears to be grappling with the realities of AI integration. In December, GearTech reported that CEO Satya Nadella expressed disappointment with the consumer version of Copilot in an internal email. He reportedly criticized the integration with Outlook and Gmail, deeming it “not smart” and largely ineffective. Nadella subsequently delegated some responsibilities to focus more directly on Copilot’s development. Microsoft has not publicly commented on the report.
The Future of AI PCs: A Return to Practicality?
Despite these setbacks, the idea of AI PCs isn’t inherently flawed. However, in recent years, it felt as though technology companies were leveraging generative AI to push consumers into purchasing more expensive or powerful devices, even if they didn’t genuinely need them or benefit from local AI processing.
Now, with the RAM crunch and a lack of sustained consumer demand, there’s a growing hope that the AI PC marketing hype will subside. PC companies may be compelled to focus on demonstrating the tangible benefits of AI PCs – proving they are a solution to a real problem, rather than a solution searching for one.
Key Takeaways and What to Expect
- RAM Shortage is Real: The shortage is impacting prices and configurations across the PC market.
- AI PC Hype is Cooling: Consumer interest hasn't matched manufacturer expectations.
- Focus on Value: Manufacturers are likely to prioritize features like battery life, display quality, and build quality.
- Cloud AI Remains Strong: Cloud-based AI solutions offer a viable alternative to on-device processing.
- Long-Term Outlook: RAM pricing stability isn't expected until 2027, delaying a full-scale return to AI PC emphasis.
The current situation presents an opportunity for a more grounded approach to AI in PCs. Instead of focusing on buzzwords and marketing hype, companies can concentrate on developing AI-powered features that genuinely enhance the user experience and address specific needs. The future of AI PCs may not be as flashy as initially predicted, but it could ultimately be more sustainable and impactful.