Ocean Damage Doubles Climate Change Costs: A New Report Reveals the True Economic Impact
A groundbreaking study published by researchers at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography reveals the global cost of greenhouse gas emissions is nearly double previous estimates. This significant increase stems from the first-ever social cost of carbon (SCC) assessment to comprehensively include damages to the ocean. Global coral loss, fisheries disruption, and coastal infrastructure destruction are now estimated to cost nearly $2 trillion annually, fundamentally reshaping our understanding of climate finance and the urgency of climate action. This report underscores the critical need to reassess economic models and prioritize ocean conservation in climate mitigation strategies.
The Hidden Cost of a Neglected Ecosystem
For decades, economic models assessing the impact of climate change have effectively assigned a value of zero to the ocean. “For decades, we’ve been estimating the economic cost of climate change while effectively assigning a value of zero to the ocean,” explains Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, lead author of the study. “Ocean loss is not just an environmental issue, but a central part of the economic story of climate change.” This oversight has led to a severe underestimation of the true financial burden of carbon emissions. The ocean, covering 70% of the planet, plays a vital role in regulating climate, providing food security, and supporting countless livelihoods. Ignoring its degradation has masked the full extent of the climate crisis.
Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a crucial accounting method used to determine the monetary cost associated with each ton of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Amy Campbell, a United Nations climate advisor and former British government COP negotiator, highlights its importance: “[It] is one of the most efficient tools we have for internalizing climate damages into economic decision-making.” Historically, SCC calculations have informed policy proposals by international organizations and government agencies like the US Environmental Protection Agency. However, political factors have often influenced its application, as evidenced by a 2025 White House memo instructing agencies to disregard the data unless legally required.
The inclusion of ocean damage dramatically alters the SCC. Excluding ocean harm, the SCC stands at $51 per ton of carbon dioxide emitted. However, when the ocean is factored in, this figure rises to $97.20 per ton – a 91% increase. Considering that global CO2 emissions were estimated at 41.6 billion tons in 2024, this cost escalation is profoundly significant. This revised SCC provides a more accurate basis for evaluating the economic consequences of climate policies and investments.
Projected Economic Damages: A Looming Crisis
Using current greenhouse gas emission predictions, the report estimates annual damages to traditional markets alone will reach $1.66 trillion by 2100. This figure doesn't account for the broader, less quantifiable impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being. The study meticulously assessed downstream costs across four key sectors: corals, mangroves, fisheries, and seaports. Researchers measured both direct market losses – such as reduced fisheries yields and marine trade – and indirect impacts on ocean-based recreational industries.
Beyond Market Value: The Importance of Non-Use Values
The study went beyond traditional economic metrics to quantify what economists call non-use values. Bastien-Olvera explains: “Something has value because it makes the world feel more livable, meaningful, or worth protecting, even if we never directly use it.” This encompasses the intrinsic value of ecosystem enjoyment and the cultural loss associated with climate change. Many individuals may never witness a coral reef spawning event or a bioluminescent jellyfish, but they still recognize the importance of their existence. Acknowledging these non-use values is crucial for a holistic assessment of climate damage.
Disproportionate Impacts on Vulnerable Communities
Island economies, heavily reliant on seafood for nutrition, will bear a disproportionate share of the financial and health consequences of ocean warming and acidification. “The countries that have the most responsibility for causing climate change and the most capacity to fix it are not generally the same countries that will experience the largest or most near-term damages,” notes Kate Ricke, co-author and climate professor at UCSD’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. The inclusion of ocean data in SCC assessments reveals increased risks of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries facing heightened nutritional deficiencies. This highlights the urgent need for equitable climate solutions that prioritize the needs of the most vulnerable populations.
A Call to Action: Investing in Ocean Resilience
Despite the sobering findings, Bastien-Olvera and Ricke remain optimistic that this data will serve as a wake-up call for international decision-making. “I hope that the high value of ‘blueSCC’ can motivate further investment in adaptation and resilience for ocean systems,” says Ricke, referencing the opportunities to invest in coral reef and mangrove restoration projects. These nature-based solutions can provide significant economic and ecological benefits, while also enhancing coastal protection.
Bastien-Olvera emphasizes that centering the framework on oceans also recognizes the longstanding conservation efforts of coastal communities, ocean scientists, and Indigenous peoples. “For a long time, climate economics treated the ocean values as if it were worth zero,” he states. “This is a first step toward finally acknowledging how wrong that was.” Integrating traditional ecological knowledge and local expertise is essential for developing effective and sustainable ocean conservation strategies.
The Future of Climate Economics and Ocean Conservation
This study represents a paradigm shift in climate economics, demonstrating the critical importance of incorporating ocean health into SCC assessments. The revised SCC provides a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the true cost of carbon emissions, which can inform more effective climate policies and investments. Moving forward, it is essential to continue refining these models and expanding our understanding of the complex interactions between climate change and ocean ecosystems. The future of our planet depends on recognizing the intrinsic value of the ocean and prioritizing its conservation.
The findings from this report have significant implications for a range of stakeholders, including policymakers, investors, and conservation organizations. By acknowledging the economic value of ocean ecosystems, we can unlock new opportunities for sustainable development and climate resilience. The time to act is now, before the damage becomes irreversible. GearTech will continue to follow this developing story and provide updates on the latest advancements in climate science and technology.