Chinese Rocket Failures & Rocket Lab Delay: A Deep Dive into Recent Spaceflight Setbacks
The past week in the space industry has been a rollercoaster of ambition and adversity. While NASA continues preparations for the Artemis II mission, rolling the massive SLS rocket to its launch pad, the global launch landscape has been shaken by a series of failures. China experienced back-to-back launch mishaps, and Rocket Lab encountered a setback in the development of its Neutron launch vehicle. This article provides an in-depth analysis of these events, exploring the implications for the future of space exploration and access to orbit. We’ll cover these developments and more, offering insights into the challenges and triumphs shaping the modern space race.
Australia Invests in Sovereign Launch Capabilities
Gilmour Space Technologies has secured AUD $217 million (USD $148 million) in funding, a pivotal moment for Australia’s space ambitions. This investment, led by the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation and Hostplus, positions Gilmour as Australia’s newest unicorn – a startup valued at over AUD $1 billion. The funding aims to reduce Australia’s reliance on foreign launch providers, particularly SpaceX, whose launch queues currently extend beyond two years.
Addressing a Strategic Priority
CEO Adam Gilmour emphasized the historical lack of capital compared to American competitors. The investment reflects a growing concern about geopolitical tensions and the need for a sovereign launch capability. Gilmour’s first Eris rocket achieved 14 seconds of flight last year, a result framed as a valuable learning experience in the inherently risky field of space launch. This funding is crucial for Australia to establish itself as a key player in the global space race.
Isar Aerospace Postpones Spectrum Rocket Test Flight
Isar Aerospace has scrubbed a planned January 21 launch of its Spectrum rocket due to a technical issue with a pressurization valve. This mirrors a similar problem encountered during the rocket’s first test flight last year. The Spectrum rocket, designed to deliver up to 1 metric ton (2,200 pounds) to low-Earth orbit, is awaiting liftoff from Andøya Spaceport in Norway.
Geopolitical Implications for European Spaceflight
This launch is significant within the context of European efforts to secure its independence in spaceflight. With access to Russian rockets restricted, Europe is seeking alternatives to US launch providers. Isar Aerospace is well-positioned to become a key player in the European launch market, offering competition to Ariane 6 and Vega C. CEO Daniel Metzler highlighted the importance of a successful launch for European space sovereignty.
Orbex Faces Potential Acquisition by The Exploration Company
UK-based rocket builder Orbex has signed a letter of intent to be acquired by European space logistics startup The Exploration Company. Orbex is developing the small launch vehicle Prime and a larger medium-lift vehicle, Proxima. The financial details of the potential acquisition remain confidential.
Financial Challenges and Strategic Alignment
Orbex CEO Phil Chambers indicated that the company’s financial situation played a role in the decision to explore a sale. The Exploration Company, a well-funded European startup, is developing reusable space capsules and rocket engines. This acquisition could provide Orbex with the resources needed to continue its development efforts. Orbex’s Danish subsidiary is currently filing for bankruptcy, and its UK entity is overdue in filing its 2024 financial accounts, highlighting the financial pressures the company has been facing.
A Difficult Day for China’s Space Program: Two Launch Failures
China experienced a double blow on January 16 with the loss of a Shijian military satellite and the failed inaugural launch of the Ceres-2 rocket. The first failure involved a Long March 3B rocket carrying the Shijian 32 satellite, likely destined for geostationary transfer orbit. A failure of the Long March 3B’s third stage resulted in the loss of the payload. This was the first failure of a Long March 3-series vehicle since 2020, ending a streak of 50 consecutive successful flights.
Ceres-2 Failure Adds to Concerns
Less than 12 hours later, the Ceres-2 rocket, a larger variant of the Ceres-1 developed by Galactic Energy, also failed during its first launch attempt. Chinese officials have not disclosed the payloads lost on the Ceres-2 mission. These back-to-back failures raise questions about the reliability of China’s launch program and the potential impact on its space ambitions.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Development Hit by Structural Failure
Rocket Lab experienced a structural failure of the Neutron rocket’s Stage 1 tank during hydrostatic pressure testing. This setback will delay the inaugural flight of the partially reusable launcher. The company stated that there was no significant damage to the test structure and is currently analyzing the cause of the failure.
Implications for Competition in the Launch Market
The Neutron rocket is designed to allow Rocket Lab to compete more directly with established players like SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. Rocket Lab is already producing a replacement Stage 1 tank and continues development. While the company has previously projected an ambitious launch schedule, it is likely to maintain its 2026 target for the first Neutron launch, at least publicly. Setbacks are inherent in rocket development, and Rocket Lab’s experience underscores the challenges of building a new launch system.
Falcon 9 Launches NRO Spysats
SpaceX successfully launched a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base on January 16, carrying intelligence-gathering satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). The mission, NROL-105, deployed satellites believed to be part of the Starshield program, a government variant of the Starlink constellation.
Expanding the NRO’s Constellation
The NRO’s proliferated architecture now comprises nearly 200 satellites, providing rapid imaging and persistent coverage. The agency plans approximately a dozen more launches through 2026. Interestingly, this particular mission appeared to carry a smaller payload – potentially only two satellites – compared to previous Falcon 9 launches carrying Starshield satellites, according to space tracking expert Jonathan McDowell.
China Conducts Static Fire Test of Reusable Long March 12B
China’s main space contractor performed a static fire test of the Long March 12B rocket’s first stage engines at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone in Jiuquan. The Long March 12B is a partially reusable rocket with a capacity of 20 metric tons to low-Earth orbit in expendable mode.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 Clone?
The Long March 12B features landing legs and is designed to land downrange in the Gobi Desert, similar to SpaceX’s Falcon 9. It has nine kerosene-fueled first stage engines and a single kerosene-fueled upper stage engine. This rocket represents China’s growing focus on reusable launch systems and its ambition to compete with SpaceX in the commercial launch market.
Artemis II Rolls to the Launch Pad
NASA’s Artemis II mission took a significant step forward with the rollout of the SLS rocket to Launch Complex 39B at Kennedy Space Center. The four-mile journey took 12 hours. The Orion capsule will reach speeds exceeding 25,000 mph during its return to Earth.
Key Tests Ahead for Human Lunar Exploration
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman emphasized the historical significance of the mission. Artemis II astronauts will travel farther from Earth than any humans before them. A critical fueling test is scheduled for early February to determine the launch date, which is currently within the February 6 launch window. This mission is a crucial step towards establishing a sustainable human presence on the Moon.
Blue Origin Confirms Booster Reuse Plan for New Glenn
Blue Origin has confirmed that the next New Glenn launch will carry a large communications satellite for AST SpaceMobile. More importantly, the company announced that the same booster used on the previous New Glenn mission (NG-2) is being refurbished for this launch (NG-3). This represents a remarkably fast turnaround for an orbital booster, just 10 weeks between launches.
Rapid Reusability: A Key Advantage
SpaceX initially scrapped its first landed Falcon 9 booster after discovering interior damage. Blue Origin’s rapid reuse demonstrates progress in reusable rocket technology and highlights a key advantage in reducing launch costs. This rapid turnaround positions Blue Origin to compete more effectively in the launch market.
Next Three Launches
- Jan. 25: Falcon 9 | Starlink 17-20 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 15:17 UTC
- Jan. 26: Falcon 9 | GPS III SV09 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 04:46 UTC
- Jan. 26: Long March 7A | Unknown Payload | Wenchang Space Launch Site, China | 21:00 UTC