2026’s Hottest Launches & Landings: What to Watch Now
Last year was a whirlwind of activity in the space industry, delivering record-breaking launch numbers, breathtaking views of other worlds, and a mix of significant breakthroughs and setbacks. As we look ahead, 2026 is shaping up to be another incredibly exciting year for space exploration. For the first time in over 54 years, astronauts are actively training for lunar missions, potentially venturing near the Moon within the coming months. NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and a growing number of other companies are making substantial strides towards achieving human landings on the Moon, potentially within the next few years. New rockets are slated for their debut in 2026, promising to open new windows into the universe. This article details the most anticipated space missions scheduled for this year, ranked by our level of anticipation, and assesses the likelihood of their success within the next 12 months. Unless otherwise stated, we will focus on the probability of the missions occurring, not necessarily their ultimate success.
1. Artemis II: Humanity’s Return to Lunar Orbit
Final preparations for the Artemis II mission are well underway at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft are fully integrated within the Vehicle Assembly Building. Within weeks, the SLS rocket is expected to roll to Launch Complex 39B for a crucial countdown dress rehearsal. Currently scheduled for February, Artemis II will depart Florida’s Space Coast on a 10-day flight, carrying astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen around the far side of the Moon and back to Earth. This marks the first crewed flight on the SLS rocket and Orion capsule. Even with potential delays, Artemis II is well-positioned to launch by spring or summer. Chance of Artemis II happening in 2026: 90 percent.
2. SpaceX Starship: The Key to Deep Space Travel – Refueling Demo
A large-scale orbital refueling demonstration is a critical step on SpaceX’s Starship roadmap for 2026. Mastering this capability is essential for unlocking Starship’s potential for travel beyond low-Earth orbit. SpaceX must successfully refuel Starships in orbit before fulfilling its lunar lander contract with NASA and realizing its ambitious plans for Starship flights to Mars. This first refueling demo will likely involve two Starship launches from separate launch pads in Texas or Florida. The ships will link up in orbit, and one will attempt to transfer super-cold methane and liquid oxygen propellants to the other. Cryogenic refueling at this scale has never been attempted in space before. Chance of a refueling demo happening in 2026: 50 percent.
3. Starship Catch: Towards Full Reusability
SpaceX plans to debut Starship Version 3 (V3) with an inaugural test flight in the coming months. This initial flight will resemble previous Starship test flights, with the rocket launching from South Texas and following a suborbital arc halfway around the world for a precise ocean landing. If successful, SpaceX could proceed to the next phase of Starship development: launching Starship – the world’s largest rocket – into low-Earth orbit and bringing it back for a reentry over northern Mexico, recovering it at SpaceX’s Starbase, Texas facility. The ship will then be caught at its launch pad using giant mechanical arms, similar to the recovery method used for the Super Heavy booster. A successful catch would be a major leap towards making Starship fully reusable. Chance of a successful Starship catch happening in 2026: 70 percent.
4. Blue Moon Mark 1: A Lunar Behemoth
Blue Origin’s first lunar lander is a substantial undertaking. If successful, the Blue Moon Mark 1 cargo lander will become the largest spacecraft ever to land on the lunar surface. The craft stands over 26 feet (8 meters) tall and is more than 10 feet (3 meters) in diameter. Engineers in Florida are completing the assembly of the first Blue Moon Mark 1 before shipping it to Houston for environmental testing. The lander will then return to Cape Canaveral for launch preparations atop Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket. The company’s current plan is to launch the Moon lander on New Glenn sometime this year. This unpiloted lander’s first journey to the Moon will be crucial as engineers assess the feasibility of modifying future Blue Moon Mark 1s for crewed missions. Chance of Blue Moon Mark 1 launching in 2026: 70 percent.
5. New Launchers Debut: Rocket Lab’s Neutron & Stoke’s Nova
5a. Rocket Lab’s Neutron: Expanding Capabilities
Rocket Lab has consistently held second place among US rocket companies in terms of launch frequency. The company’s Electron launcher surpassed a monthly launch cadence in 2025. Rocket Lab’s next rocket, the medium-lift Neutron, will open new markets for the company. Neutron is designed with a reusable first stage and an integrated payload fairing, which will return to Earth as a single unit after releasing the rocket’s expendable upper stage. The launch pad at Wallops Island, Virginia, is complete, but the rocket wasn’t ready to meet Rocket Lab’s goal of a first flight by the end of 2025. Rocket Lab’s founder, Peter Beck, is known for setting ambitious schedules. His latest projection calls for delivering the first Neutron rocket to the launch site in the first quarter of 2026, “with first launch thereafter.” Chance of Neutron launching in 2026: 50 percent.
5b. Stoke’s Nova: A Fully Reusable Contender
Unlike Rocket Lab, Stoke Space has no prior experience launching orbital rockets, but its founders bring impressive expertise from long tenures overseeing propulsion projects at Blue Origin. Stoke’s first rocket, Nova, is officially scheduled to fly for the first time in 2026. Construction of Nova’s launch site at Cape Canaveral is well advanced, and the first and second stages underwent qualification testing last year. Engineers completed the first hot-fire test of the rocket’s first stage engine in 2024 in Washington state, following earlier tests of the upper stage propulsion system. Nova is uniquely designed for full reusability, with a recoverable booster and upper stage. Stoke is one of the few companies besides SpaceX that appears close to test-flying a fully reusable rocket. Chance of Nova launching in 2026: 30 percent.
6. China’s Human-Rated Spacecraft: Mengzhou Debut
China’s goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030 is within reach, and a critical test of the country’s new human-rated spacecraft is scheduled for launch sometime in 2026. The partially reusable Mengzhou spacecraft is designed to carry up to seven people to China’s Tiangong space station or a smaller crew on voyages to the Moon, eventually replacing China’s Shenzhou crew capsule. Mengzhou is comparable to NASA’s Orion spacecraft or the Apollo command module and is a key element of China’s lunar architecture, alongside a human-rated lander named Lanyue. It will launch on China’s new Long March 10A rocket. China’s Manned Space Agency states that the first flight of Long March 10A will occur alongside Mengzhou – likely uncrewed – sometime this year. Recent hot-fire testing of the rocket’s booster stage has been observed, and China typically doesn’t publicize launch schedules without confidence in their realism. Chance of Long March 10A and Mengzhou launching in 2026: 60 percent.
7. China’s Reusable Rocket Progress
The first of several reusable rockets under development in China launched in early December. The medium-class Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by the commercial startup LandSpace, successfully reached orbit on its debut flight. LandSpace’s attempt to land the rocket’s first stage booster downrange demonstrated its progress towards recovering – and eventually reusing – a Zhuque-3 booster stage. The rocket failed during its landing burn moments before touchdown, crashing near its landing pad in the Gobi Desert. LandSpace plans to attempt another landing with Zhuque-3, and other companies have rockets with similar plans in the coming months. Chance of a Chinese orbital-class rocket making a successful landing in 2026: 60 percent.
8. Haven-1: The Dawn of Commercial Space Stations
Looking at public schedules, Vast, a California-based company, appears to have a significant lead in the race to establish a commercial space station in orbit before the International Space Station’s retirement in 2030. Vast’s first crewed habitat, Haven-1, is under construction for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, followed by up to four visits by private crews on SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, with each stay lasting up to 10 days. While this capability falls short of the permanent human presence supported by the ISS, a successful launch and activation of Haven-1 would be a significant achievement for the commercial space industry. Vast aims to follow Haven-1 with a larger space station for longer stays. The primary structure of the flight module completed structural testing in October and was set to undergo final weld inspections and integration. Vast’s most recent schedule called for a launch as early as May 2026, but fully outfitting the module’s interior will likely take longer. Chance of Haven-1 launching in 2026: 30 percent.
9. NASA’s Roman Space Telescope: A Wider View of the Universe
NASA’s next flagship-class astronomical observatory is now fully assembled at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, named for NASA’s first chief astronomer, will have a field of view at least 100 times larger than the Hubble Space Telescope. Roman’s primary instrument will perform wide-area surveys of the Universe, covering 50 times more of the sky in five years than Hubble did in its first 30 years. A secondary coronagraph instrument will enhance astronomers’ ability to directly image exoplanets. NASA announced in December that assembly was completed, initiating a series of environmental tests before its scheduled launch no earlier than September on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket. Chance of the Roman Space Telescope launching in 2026: 80 percent.
10. China’s Chang’e 7: Searching for Lunar Water Ice
The next robotic mission in China’s lunar exploration program is scheduled for launch as soon as August 2026. Chang’e 7 won’t repeat China’s previous success of returning samples from the Moon, but it will have several firsts. The lander will attempt to land in the Moon’s south pole region and deploy a miniature flying probe to search for water ice in cold traps hidden on the floors of dark craters. The target landing site is on the rim of Shackleton Crater, within range of cold, unlit regions believed to harbor water ice. If successful, Chang’e 7 will be the first mission to locate and characterize water ice deposits on the lunar surface, potentially beating similar US missions to the Moon by a year or more. Chance of Chang’e 7 launching in 2026: 80 percent.
11. Europe’s Emerging Commercial Launchers
Similar to our discussion of China’s reusable rockets, we’re grouping Europe’s new startup launch companies together. Three European companies are targeting the first flight of their small satellite launchers in 2026. Isar Aerospace, headquartered near Munich, launched its first Spectrum rocket in March 2025, though it didn’t reach orbit. Isar is preparing for a second orbital launch attempt in early 2026. Rocket Factory Augsburg, another German company, was on track to launch its first RFA One rocket before a test-firing accident in 2024. PLD Space of Spain is targeting a first flight of its Miura 5 rocket in 2026, but appears to be behind Isar Aerospace and Rocket Factory Augsburg. Other contenders include MaiaSpace of France and Germany’s HyImpulse, both of which have delayed their first orbital launch attempts to 2027. Chance of a European launch startup reaching orbit in 2026: 20 percent.
12. Terran R’s First Flight: Relativity Space’s Heavy Lifter
Relativity Space is officially targeting the first flight of its heavy-lift Terran R rocket in late 2026, but skepticism is warranted. At its Long Beach, California headquarters, Relativity is completing welding on the first stage, second stage, and interstage adapter for Terran R’s first flight, while installing internal fluid lines. Each stage will undergo structural testing at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Mississippi before shipment to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Relativity is also performing acceptance testing on first stage engines and developmental testing on the upper stage engine. Construction of the Terran R launch pad in Florida is ongoing. Chance of Terran R’s first launch in 2026: 10 percent.
13. Firefly’s Eclipse: A Joint Venture for Medium-Lift Capability
Another rocket officially scheduled to launch in late 2026 is Eclipse, the new medium-lift launcher under joint development by Firefly Aerospace and Northrop Grumman. On paper, Eclipse is at a similar stage of development as Relativity’s Terran R. Firefly has completed over 100 hot-fire tests of the Eclipse’s Miranda main engine, more than Relativity has done with its Aeon R engine. Relativity is already test-firing its upper stage engine, while Firefly has not yet reached that milestone. Chance of Eclipse’s first launch in 2026: 20 percent.
14. IM-3 and Vestri: Expanding Lunar and Asteroid Exploration
Intuitive Machines, the first US company to land a spacecraft on the Moon, plans to return to the lunar surface in 2026 with its third Nova-C lander. A more specific schedule hasn’t been released. Officials are targeting May 2026 for a flight readiness review before shipping the spacecraft to Florida. Intuitive Machines’ first two landers experienced issues after landing but still returned some science data. The next lander will incorporate updated navigation sensors for a gentle touchdown in the Reiner Gamma region. The Vestri mission from AstroForge will attempt to land on a metal-rich asteroid. Chance of IM-3 and Vestri launching in 2026: 50 percent.
15. Blue Ghost Mission 2: Returning to the Lunar Far Side
Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully completed the first fully commercial mission on the Moon’s surface last March. The next Blue Ghost mission is more ambitious, targeting a landing on the far side of the Moon “as early as 2026.” This mission consists of three spacecraft: a Blue Ghost lander for the far side, a Firefly-built Elytra orbiter for data relay, and a European Space Agency (ESA) orbiter called Lunar Pathfinder. This will be the first US mission to attempt a landing on the lunar far side, following two Chinese landers. Updates from Firefly suggest the company is in the early stages of manufacturing flight hardware. Chance of Blue Ghost Mission 2 launching in 2026: 10 percent.
16. America’s First Geosynchronous Refueler
Astroscale, initially focused on cleaning up space debris, has pivoted to satellite servicing. Many technologies needed for debris cleanup are also applicable to Astroscale’s new focus. Astroscale launched a satellite last year to inspect a derelict Japanese rocket in low-Earth orbit. Its next mission will attempt to refuel a US military satellite above geosynchronous orbit. Western analysts believe China completed a similar mission in 2025. Astroscale’s contract with the US Space Force aims to replicate this feat. The latest schedule indicates a launch in mid-2026. Chance of Astroscale’s refueler launching in 2026: 50 percent.
17. Europe’s Plato Mission: Hunting for Exoplanets
The European Space Agency’s next medium-class science mission, Plato, could become the most prolific planet hunter ever sent into space. Fitted with 26 ultra-sensitive cameras, Plato will search for exoplanets by detecting dips in light as planets pass in front of stars. Some estimates suggest Plato could discover thousands of exoplanets. Plato is specifically designed to find Sun-Earth analogs, potentially habitable rocky planets around Sun-like stars. Preparations for Plato’s launch are progressing well. Ground teams finished assembling the observatory in October, and it will undergo vibration, acoustic, and thermal vacuum testing. The mission has schedule margin for its December 2026 launch date, but a minor delay could push it into 2027. Chance of Plato launching in 2026: 60 percent.
18. Gaganyaan Orbital Test Flight: India’s Human Spaceflight Ambitions
India has ambitious plans for its space program, including a heavy-lift rocket, a space station, and eventual human landings on the Moon. Gaganyaan, India’s human spaceflight program, is a precursor to these objectives. The Gaganyaan program has government backing, but India has a history of announcing unrealistic schedules. The first uncrewed orbital test flight has been “mere months away” for the last five years. The current schedule targets the first quarter of 2026. India’s space agency has reported progress, such as human-rating the capsule’s launch vehicle and installing the propulsion system. However, skepticism is warranted until more substantial updates are provided. Chance of Gaganyaan-1 launching in 2026: 30 percent.
19. Japan’s Martian Moons Exploration (MMX) Mission
This is an exciting mission, but the most dramatic part of MMX’s journey will come after it arrives at Mars in 2027. MMX will attempt to land on the Martian moon Phobos up to two times and collect samples for a return to Earth. The mission is poised to begin with a launch in October to start its journey to Mars. The launch was previously set for 2024, but Japan’s space agency delayed it due to problems with its new H3 rocket. The H3 scored successful flights until December, when it failed to deliver a satellite to orbit. There’s still time to investigate the failure and return the H3 to flight before MMX’s launch window. The fully integrated MMX spacecraft underwent environmental testing throughout 2025. Chance of MMX launching in 2026: 80 percent.