Soyuz Pad Fix & Ariane 6's Ambition: A Deep Dive into the Evolving Space Race
The space industry is experiencing a period of rapid innovation and increased competition. 2024 and early 2025 have witnessed several new rockets making their debut flights, signaling a new era of accessibility and ambition. From Blue Origin’s New Glenn achieving successful launches and landings to China’s Zhuque-3 reaching orbit, and the promising progress of Europe’s Ariane 6, the landscape is shifting. This article provides an in-depth look at these developments, the challenges faced, and the future trajectory of the space race, including updates on the critical Soyuz pad fix and the implications of SpaceX’s concerns regarding close approaches with other satellites.
New Rockets Take Flight: A Year of Firsts
Several rockets have marked significant milestones with their inaugural flights this year. Blue Origin’s New Glenn stood out with a successful first launch in January, followed by an impressive second flight in November, culminating in the booster’s first landing on an offshore platform – a crucial step towards full reusability. Secondly, China’s Zhuque-3, a partially reusable methane-fueled rocket developed by LandSpace, successfully reached orbit on its first flight earlier this month, with the booster narrowly missing its intended landing. The potential addition of China’s Long March 12A before the year's end further underscores China’s growing capabilities.
Rocket Lab Delivers for Space Force and NASA: DiskSat Innovation
Rocket Lab continues to be a reliable partner for both government and commercial clients. A recent Electron launch vehicle successfully delivered four small satellites into orbit from Virginia, initiating a technology demonstration mission funded by the government. This mission focuses on testing the performance of a novel spacecraft design called DiskSats, developed by the Aerospace Corporation.
Stack ‘Em High: The DiskSat Advantage
DiskSats are designed for optimized rideshare launches. These lightweight, compact satellites are disc-shaped, measuring 39 inches (1 meter) in diameter and just 1 inch (2.5 centimeters) thick. Constructed from composite carbon fiber, each DiskSat incorporates solar cells, control avionics, reaction wheels, and an electric thruster for altitude control. Their flat design allows for efficient stacking during launch, and the increased surface area accommodates more solar cells for high-power missions or advanced payloads like radar imaging instruments and high-bandwidth antennas. This innovative approach is co-funded by NASA and the US Space Force.
SpaceX Raises Concerns: Dangerous Chinese Launch Proximity
SpaceX recently highlighted a potentially dangerous close approach between one of its Starlink satellites and a Chinese satellite. Michael Nicolls, SpaceX’s vice president of Starlink engineering, reported a 200-meter proximity between Starlink-6079 and a satellite launched on a Chinese Kinetica-1 rocket at an altitude of 560 kilometers (348 miles). This incident underscores the critical need for improved coordination between satellite operators to mitigate risks in orbit.
CAS Space Responds
CAS Space, the company operating the Kinetica-1 rocket, acknowledged the report and stated they would investigate. They clarified that the close approach, if confirmed, occurred nearly 48 hours after separation from the rocket, when the launch mission was complete. However, the incident highlights the growing congestion in low Earth orbit and the importance of proactive collision avoidance measures.
South Korean Startup Innospace Prepares for Launch
Innospace, a South Korean space startup, is poised to launch its independently developed commercial rocket, Hanbit-Nano, from the Alcântara Space Center in Brazil. This small launcher aims to deliver eight small payloads, including five deployable satellites, into low-Earth orbit. A two-day delay was necessary to address components in the first stage oxidizer supply cooling system.
Hybrid Propulsion and Unique Design
Hanbit-Nano is a micro-launcher capable of placing up to 200 pounds (90 kilograms) of payload into Sun-synchronous orbit. It features a unique hybrid engine design, utilizing paraffin as fuel and liquid oxygen as the oxidizer. This launch represents a significant milestone for the South Korean space program and its growing private sector.
A Decade Since a Landmark Achievement: SpaceX’s First Landing
December 21, 2015, marked a pivotal moment in rocketry history when SpaceX successfully landed the first stage of its Falcon 9 rocket for the first time, following the Orbcomm-2 mission. This achievement revolutionized space access and paved the way for reusable rocket technology. The event, recounted in detail in Eric Berger’s book Reentry, involved significant risk and meticulous planning, culminating in a dramatic landing that changed the industry.
Roscosmos Targets February 2026 for Soyuz Launch Pad Fix
Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, anticipates repairing the damaged launch pad at the Baikonur Cosmodrome by the end of February 2026. The Pad 31, crucial for International Space Station operations, sustained damage during the November 27 launch of a Soyuz-2.1a rocket. The pad is currently the only one capable of supporting Russian launches to the ISS.
Repair Efforts Underway
A service structure became unsecured during the recent launch, falling into the flame trench. Roscosmos has received a complete service cabin replacement kit and is working in two shifts to expedite repairs. A successful fix by the end of February would allow Russia to resume cargo flights to the ISS in March. This is a best-case scenario, and any further delays could impact ISS resupply schedules.
ULA Concludes an Up-and-Down Year with Atlas V Success
United Launch Alliance (ULA) concluded 2025 with a successful predawn launch of an Atlas V rocket, carrying 27 satellites for Amazon’s rebranded Leo broadband Internet service. This was ULA’s fourth launch for Amazon’s satellite broadband venture. While ULA completed six launches this year, exceeding last year’s total, the new Vulcan rocket launched only once, falling short of the company’s goal of up to 10 flights.
Amazon Leo Deployment Progress
The launch brought the total number of Amazon Leo satellites in orbit to 180, still significantly short of the 3,232 satellites required by the FCC by July 31, 2026. Amazon is expected to request a waiver or extension to this deadline. The company’s factory is increasing production, but launch capacity remains a key constraint. Future launches are planned on ULA’s Atlas V and Vulcan rockets, Europe’s Ariane 6, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn.
Ariane 6 Demonstrates Strong Performance in 2025
Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket achieved four successful launches in 2025, following its debut test flight in 2024. These missions deployed payloads for the French military, Europe’s weather satellite agency, the European Union’s Copernicus environmental monitoring network, and the European Galileo navigation satellite fleet. This rapid ramp-up of launch cadence is remarkable for a new rocket and launch pad.
Long-Duration Mission Success
The recent Galileo launch showcased Ariane 6’s ability to support long-duration missions. The rocket’s cryogenic upper stage, with its restartable Vinci engine, took nearly four hours to inject two Galileo satellites into a geostationary orbit. This flight profile tested the upper stage’s capabilities and demonstrated the rocket’s versatility.
ESA Enhances Ariane 6 Kick Stage for Orbital Transfer
The European Space Agency (ESA) plans to adapt the Ariane 6’s Astris kick stage into a more capable Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A €100 million ($117 million) commitment from ESA member states will fund this evolution. The enhanced OTV will offer significantly improved performance compared to the original Astris kick stage, with strong support from Germany. A protoflight model is expected to be ready for ground qualification by the end of 2028, with an inaugural flight planned for 2029.
China Pursues Starship-Inspired Designs
A growing number of Chinese launch companies are unveiling rocket designs that closely resemble SpaceX’s Starship. Beijing Leading Rocket Technology recently announced its “Starship-1” vehicle, touting AI enhancements and full reusability. This trend follows a similar pattern of initial designs mirroring the Falcon 9. Even China’s state-owned rocket maker has shifted its Long March 9 design to resemble Starship. While many of these startups may not reach fruition, the ambition and rapid development are indicative of China’s growing space aspirations.
Upcoming Launches
- Dec. 19: Hanbit-Nano | Spaceward | Alcântara Launch Center, Brazil | 18:45 UTC
- Dec. 20: Long March 5 | Unknown Payload | Wenchang Space Launch Site, China | 12:30 UTC
- Dec. 20: New Shepard | NS-37 crew mission | Launch Site One, Texas | 14:00 UTC