Neutron's Rocket & Orbex's Future: A Comprehensive Space Launch Update
The space launch industry is undergoing a period of rapid evolution, marked by ambitious projects, technological breakthroughs, and shifting investment landscapes. This report dives deep into the latest developments, focusing on key players like SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and European contenders Orbex and others. We’ll examine recent milestones, funding challenges, and the strategic direction of these companies as they strive to revolutionize access to space. From Elon Musk’s potential IPO of SpaceX to the struggles of Orbex in securing funding, and the progress of new rockets like Neutron and Terran R, this article provides a comprehensive update on the current state of the space launch sector.
SpaceX: Towards an IPO and the AI Data Center Frontier
Recent news has centered around SpaceX founder Elon Musk’s decision to potentially take the company public via an Initial Public Offering (IPO) within the next 12 to 18 months. This marks a significant shift in strategy for Musk, who has historically resisted public scrutiny and prioritized long-term goals like Mars settlement over short-term shareholder returns. A key driver behind this change appears to be the potential of Starlink satellites as a distributed network of AI data centers.
Long-time SpaceX employee Abhi Tripathi believes this realization was pivotal. “That is the moment an IPO suddenly came into play after being unlikely for so long. Much of the AI race comes down to amassing and deploying assets that work quicker than your competition. A large war chest resulting from an IPO will greatly help his cause and disadvantage all others.” Musk’s ambition to “win” the AI battle is clearly influencing SpaceX’s strategic direction.
Avio USA: Expanding US Rocket Motor Production
In a boost to the US industrial base, Avio USA announced plans to build a solid rocket motor production facility in Virginia. Governor Glenn Youngkin confirmed the investment, which could reach up to $500 million, supported by its Italian parent company, Avio. The 860,000 sq. ft. factory will contribute to both defense and commercial space propulsion needs.
Avio Chief Executive Officer Giulio Ranzo stated, “Avio looks forward to establishing on U.S. soil a solid rocket motor production facility to contribute in strengthening the US industrial base by providing decades of experience in engineering and manufacturing.” Final approvals and site selection are expected early next year.
European Launcher Challenge: Orbex Faces Funding Hurdles
The European Space Agency’s (ESA) European Launcher Challenge has revealed a significant disparity in funding allocation. Orbex, one of the five launch companies participating, received considerably less funding – just €34.9 million – compared to the other four contenders: Isar Aerospace, MaiaSpace, PLD Space, and Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), each of which secured at least €169 million.
The United Kingdom’s decision to defer allocating the majority of its contribution to the challenge is largely responsible for Orbex’s funding shortfall. Unlike traditional ESA programs, this challenge allowed member states to choose which “preselected challengers” to support. A UK Space Agency spokesperson stated they are “working with multiple partners to ensure this funding delivers our requirements for assured access to space and benefits U.K. taxpayers,” a statement that offered little reassurance to Orbex.
Europe's Steps Towards Crewed Launch Capability
The ESA has published a call for tenders to develop a launch abort system for a future crewed launch capability, marking a tentative step towards independent European human spaceflight. This system is crucial for ensuring astronaut safety in the event of an emergency during launch or the initial stages of flight.
This initiative is part of the agency’s post-International Space Station (ISS) low-Earth orbit strategy, which includes developing an end-to-end European crewed flight solution. Options being considered include partnering with a commercial space station or building a European-owned and operated station.
NASA Adjusts Launch Schedule Due to Russian Incident
A launch pad incident at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan has prompted NASA to accelerate the launch of two Cargo Dragon spaceships to ensure adequate supplies for astronauts on the ISS. The incident, which occurred during a Soyuz launch on Thanksgiving Day, involved a mobile platform crashing into the flame trench, rendering the Soyuz pad unusable for at least four months.
As a result, the CRS-34 Dragon mission has been moved forward by one month to May 2026, and CRS-35 has been advanced by three months to August 2026. This adjustment demonstrates NASA’s proactive approach to mitigating risks and maintaining a continuous supply chain to the ISS.
Rocket Lab's Neutron Progress: Hungry Hippo Fairing Qualified
Rocket Lab has achieved a significant milestone in the development of its Neutron rocket with the successful qualification testing of the “Hungry Hippo” captive fairing. Unlike traditional fairings that are discarded during launch, Neutron’s fairing opens to release the second stage and payload before closing again for a controlled return to Earth as a single, reusable vehicle.
Shaun D’Mello, Rocket Lab’s Vice President overseeing Neutron, stated, “Building, qualifying, and shipping Hungry Hippo is a fantastic marker of progress toward Neutron’s first launch, and I’m proud of the team for their attention to detail and pulling off this significant milestone.” The qualified fairing is now en route to Virginia for Neutron’s inaugural launch.
Relativity Space: Terran R Flight Tanks Assembled
Despite a period of relative silence following a takeover by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Relativity Space continues to make progress on its large Terran R rocket. A recent update revealed that the circumferential friction stir welds for the first stage tank have been completed. The 163-foot-long tank is composed of eight barrel sections and three domes, joined by ten welds.
The company has not yet announced a new launch target for Terran R, but work continues on the interstage section as well.
SpaceX Booster B1067 Sets New Reuse Record
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch from Kennedy Space Center on December 8th featured booster B1067, the company’s most-flown Falcon booster, on its 32nd flight. This mission also marked the delivery of SpaceX’s 3,000th Starlink satellite to low-Earth orbit this year.
SpaceX aims to certify its Falcon boosters for up to 40 missions each, although the actual number will depend on mission types and potential expendable flights. The company is also working to achieve similar levels of reuse for the payload fairings, but updates on fairing reuse are typically reserved for customer missions.
Blue Origin's New Glenn Certification Path
Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket will require four successful orbital flights to achieve certification under the US Space Force’s National Security Space Launch program. This benchmark was agreed upon by Blue Origin and the government.
Gen. Philip Garrant, who leads the Space Systems Command, stated that a third launch is expected “earlier in the new year than later.” If successful, New Glenn will become the Space Force’s third certified heavy-lift launch provider, joining SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.
Upcoming Launches
- December 13: Long March 6 | Unknown Payload | Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, China | 01:05 UTC
- December 14: Electron | RAISE and Shine | Māhia Peninsula, New Zealand | 03:00 UTC
- December 14: Falcon 9 | Starlink 15-12 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 05:20 UTC
The space launch industry remains dynamic and competitive. The developments highlighted in this report demonstrate the ongoing innovation and investment driving the sector forward. From SpaceX’s ambitious plans to dominate the AI data center market to the challenges faced by European launch providers, the future of space access is being shaped by a complex interplay of technological advancements, strategic decisions, and geopolitical factors. Continued monitoring of these trends will be crucial for understanding the evolving landscape of space exploration and commercialization.